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Leftover Must Sum to 1#1 · about 12 minConditioning Zooms the Leftover#2 · about 14 minBayes Reallocates Leftover#3 · about 14 minA Random Variable Names the Leftover#4 · about 12 minExpectation Mixes the Outcomes#5 · about 14 minVariance Is Spread of Leftover#6 · about 14 minDensity Is Leftover per Length#7 · about 11 minJoint Tables Split Leftover Two Ways#8 · about 14 minNamed Families ML Actually Uses#9 · about 13 minIndependence Is a Product#10 · about 12 minMLE Makes the Data Most Probable#11 · about 11 minMAP Spends a Prior on Leftover Belief#12 · about 14 minKL Is Leftover Surprise Between Guesses#13 · about 12 minSoftmax Turns Scores into Leftover#14 · about 11 minAverages Concentrate#15 · about 12 minMarkov Leftover and Nested Expectation#16 · about 12 min
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Courses›MAP Spends a Prior on Leftover Belief

MAP Spends a Prior on Leftover Belief

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MAP Spends a Prior on Leftover Belief

Beta(2, 2) prior + 7 heads 3 tails → Beta(9, 5): MAP mode 2/3, mean 9/14. The flat prior gives back the MLE 0.7; 10 of 10 flips give 11/12, not 1.

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